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Una nación débil no progresa

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Inundar la actualidad diaria de declaraciones y debates sobre si tenemos que ser más o menos optimistas o pesimistas, o hacer de los datos cotidianos de cualquier orden nada menos que un cambio de tendencia o el desastre nacional, según los casos, solo revela la fragilidad intelectual y política en la que se encuentra hoy España. La realidad pura y dura nos plantea una pregunta a la que hay que contestar: ¿está progresando España o no?

Las naciones democráticas solo generan progreso si son fuertes, mientras que las naciones totalitarias por muy fuertes que sean solo generan involución, pobreza y degradación humana. Esta realidad axiomática es la diferencia que hay que tener muy presente para hablar y actuar en serio sobre el futuro inmediato de España. ¿Puede hablar de progreso una nación en la que su propio gobierno proyecta que dentro de tres años el paro será del 25%, dos puntos inferior a la actual situación? ¿Se puede hablar de progreso con una tasa actual de paro juvenil superior al 57%?

Por eso lo fundamental en esta crisis que vive España es plantearse la relación que hay entre la fortaleza de las naciones y el progreso que generan en su sociedad y a nivel global. ¿Por qué las naciones democráticas más fuertes tienen menos paro y generan mayor progreso a nivel nacional y en el conjunto del mundo? Japón, Alemania, Reino Unido, Estados Unidos, tienen entre el 4% y el 7,7% de paro según los casos. Francia ya se considera un caso extremo porque ha llegado al 11% (Eurostat).

Si se hace una comparativa de la evolución de todos los principales indicadores que generan riqueza, progreso y bienestar en una sociedad (competitividad, innovación, tecnología, paro, educación, ciencia…) el resultado siempre es el mismo: las naciones más débiles salen perdiendo porque son más dependientes de los resultados que generan los demás. Es una de las razones por las que las principales compañías españolas se mantienen sólidas a pesar de la crisis, porque son fuertes en el exterior. Dependen menos de su cuenta de resultados a nivel nacional.

Hace dos décadas tuvo un fuerte impacto de actualidad en todo el mundo el libro titulado “El fin del estado-nación”, de Kenichi Ohmae, que auguraba su sustitución por el poder de las economías regionales. La realidad ha demostrado que se trató de una teoría totalmente errónea. Ninguna economía regional ha sustituido el poder del Estado. Todo lo contrario, el Estado-nación se ha fortalecido porque es lo que garantiza su influencia y liderazgo global, incluida la propia salvación de las economías regionales que llegan a  encontrarse en estado de crisis o de quiebra. En definitiva, la capacidad de progreso de una nación.

La globalización hace un mundo totalmente interdependiente, y precisamente por ello las naciones con espíritu de progreso saben que necesitan fortalecerse, y que la debilidad es un riesgo que no pueden correr. Estados Unidos controla los mares con mil buques de guerra propios y aliados coordinados las 24 horas del día, controla las mejores inteligencias que capta diariamente de todo el mundo a través de cientos de programas gratuitos on-line de las mejores universidades (Harvard, MIT, Stanford…), y domina las comunicaciones espaciales de las que dependen el día a día de los negocios y la vida cotidiana de todos los ciudadanos del globo. Es el paradigma de una nación que puede estar en crisis pero no puede permitirse ser débil. Porque la debilidad de la nación impide su progreso y le conduce inexorablemente al declive.

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