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¿Por qué los Hermanos Musulmanes no podían gobernar?

Martino Diez | 182 comentarios valoración: 3  117 votos
Vota 1 2 3 4 5
Resultado 3  117 votos

No, no son todos iguales. La protesta llevó al alejamiento de Morsi demuestra que en el mundo árabe la era de la homogeneidad más o menos impuesta ha llegado definitivamente a su ocaso. Las escenas del 25 de enero de 2011 se repiten dos años después, y en mayor escala. Entonces, en efecto, se trató de derrocar un régimen fuerte desde el punto de vista de la seguridad, pero totalmente desacreditado ante la opinión pública. En estos días, en cambio, en la plaza y en las calles del Cairo y de otras ciudades, se han enfrentado corrientes que tienen ideas diametralmente opuestas (y a menudo muy confundidas) acerca del futuro de su país. Y si bien los manifestantes del Frente de Salvación Nacional ciertamente ganaron la prueba de fuerza iniciada el 30 de junio, gracias al apoyo decisivo del ejército, los Hermanos Musulmanes todavía cuentan con numerosos defensores.

En estas horas cruciales los escenarios posibles son dos. El más favorable prevé la realización por parte de todas las fuerzas políticas, Hermanos Musulmanes incluidos, de la hoja de ruta impuesta por el ejército a través del comunicado del general al-Sîsî. En otras palabras, se anula todo, comenzando por la controvertida Constitución, y se vuelve a comenzar desde el principio fijando las reglas del juego. Había que haberlo hecho en seguida, siguiendo el modelo de Túnez, pero una serie de factores (demagogia, falta de preparación, cálculos políticos) aplazaron el acuerdo hasta una fecha por definir. Y mientras tanto, mes tras mes, los dirigentes de los Hermanos Musulmanes se adueñaban metódicamente de todos los principales centros de poder según una lógica hegemónica y sin ninguna búsqueda seria de diálogo con las oposiciones. Oposiciones que no estaban representadas solamente por los jóvenes del movimiento de rebelión civil, sino también por figuras como el jeque de al-Azhar o el Papa de los coptos, difíciles de liquidar en clave de complot como “fuerzas extranjeras desestabilizadoras”. Es significativo que la crisis egipcia hay producido una ruptura en la dirigencia internacional de los Hermanos Musulmanes. Según el periódico al-Masry al-Yom, por ejemplo, el líder tunecino de an-Nahda, Rashed al-Ghannoushi, habría recomendado aceptar las peticiones de la plaza y convocar elecciones presidenciales anticipadas. Sin embargo, una vez más, prevaleció la línea del enfrentamiento frontal.

En verdad, los Hermanos Musulmanes podían invocar una justificación para esta política: la prioridad, según muchos, era volver a poner en funcionamiento la máquina económica del país, al borde del colapso. La cuestión, sin embargo, es que han fracasado precisamente en este nivel y así han perdido la confianza de una parte consistente de su electorado, mientras que paradójicamente el exceso de poderes que se habían atribuido y la cancelación de las instancias de control los han privado de la posibilidad de ajustar la ruta, además de repercutir substancialmente en su legitimidad. Ciertamente, la rapidez del cambio ha sorprendido un poco a todos: el verano pasado el Presidente del Partito Socialista egipcio, muy crítico respecto a los Hermanos Musulmanes, en una entrevista a Oasis pronosticaba todavía 5 años de gobierno Morsi, aunque añadía: «Me espero meses muy difíciles […]. En un futuro lejano todo esto cambiará, habrá una imponente revolución contra el Islam político. Los egipcios han cambiado psicológicamente, ya no temen a nadie. Yo personalmente estoy muy contento de que los Hermanos Musulmanes hayan tenido la posibilidad de llegar al poder. Veremos lo que saben hacer, cómo resolverán el problema de la pobreza, de la basura en las calles, el problema del desempleo de 8 millones de jóvenes…». Se trata del fracaso del Islam político, por usar la expresión de Olivier Roy. Porque cuando una religión se ideologiza, que se mantenga o caiga depende de sus resultados políticos, y no de sus datos de fe. Pero junto con esta hipótesis, siempre es posible el escenario que todos temen, la guerra civil.

Las manifestaciones ya han causado algunas muertes y sabemos que los Hermanos Musulmanes históricamente han desarrollado una estructura militar, aunque se ignora cuán grande y eficaz es. Las oposiciones no disponen de un proyecto unitario, diversos militantes se mueven por un deseo de revancha, y la difícil situación económica no ayuda. Las motivaciones por las cuales la gente salió a la calle son múltiples y la fractura entre las élites (que hablan de “constitucionalismo” y “pluralismo”) y el pueblo, a quien interesa más el pan y que funcionen mínimamente los servicios, es muy profunda. Por esto, los próximos días son realmente decisivos.

Sin embargo, ya podemos aprender tres lecciones. La primera se condensa en una observación que la estudiosa saudí Madawi al-Rasheed nos dejó al término de una conversación en noviembre de 2011: «Los egipcios se hacen ilusiones de que lo han cambiado todo en una semana. Se equivocan. La primavera árabe es como la revolución francesa. Harán falta décadas antes de que se estabilice». Los hechos de hoy le dan la razón y nos dicen que, para comprender el cambio que se está produciendo, es preciso saberse mover en todo el espectro que va del tweet en tiempo real del manifestante a las dinámicas de largo plazo de cambio demográfico, social y religioso. El trabajo es enorme y sólo se podrá llevar a cabo de modo transdisciplinario. La alternativa es el desacierto continuo.

La segunda lección es que los sujetos políticos protagonistas de la transición árabe, viejos y nuevos, pueden dilapidar rápidamente sus consensos. Independientemente de como termine, no hay duda de que los Hermanos Musulmanes han perdido por el camino el apoyo de muchos de sus partidarios. Esta advertencia, que vale también para las fuerzas políticas egipcias o para el ejército (que ya carga con la gestión desastrosa de la primera transición) no podrá menos que tener importantes consecuencias para otros países de la región. Demuestra, en efecto, que los gobiernos árabes producto de las revoluciones también son juzgados en base a los resultados que obtienen y no según las banderas ideológicas y de identidad que puedan ondear.

Precisamente esta conciencia está ausente en el modo como Estados Unidos y Europa plantearon la cuestión de la estabilización post-revolucionaria. Recuerdo un congreso esta primavera, en el cual la tesis principal que casi todos los oradores defendían era que a estas alturas el Islam político se había instalado establemente en la otra orilla del Mediterráneo y era preciso acostumbrarse a tenerlo en cuenta. Por ejemplo, con Morsi las cuentas habían sido bastante claras: mediación entre las facciones palestinas en Gaza en cambio de dar vía libre al decreto presidencial que le confería poderes faraónicos. Ahora parece que el escenario cambie de nuevo. Y así volvemos al punto de partida: los árabes no son todos iguales y no están predestinados a la dictatura. Una realpolitik planteada según estos dos presupuestos, según el único metro de las relaciones de fuerza, está fatalmente destinada a hacerse desbancar por los acontecimientos. Porque descansa en un error antropológico antes que político.

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