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Las cercanas elecciones que van a tener lugar  dentro de unas semanas en Alemania permiten pensar que estamos otra vez en los años 30 del siglo pasado. No porque nos amenacen los totalitarismos. Pero sí por el debate sobre las políticas económicas que aplicar para evitar que Occidente quede definitivamente marginado de ese eje de desarrollo y decisión que representa en este momento la región de Asia Pacífico. La  discusión sobre cómo salir de la crisis que se inició en 2008 se sigue formulando en unos términos muy parecidos a los que utilizaron Keynes y Hayek, los dos grandes genios económicos del siglo XX, antes de que estallara la Segunda Guerra Mundial. La relectura de algunos de sus textos programáticos  - como ha hecho el editor de The Times, Nicholas Wapshott, en su libro Keynes versus Hayek- refleja hasta qué punto estamos en una situación muy similar.

Si simplificamos  muho podríamos decir que las soluciones adoptadas por la administración de Bush y la de Obama responden a la receta que prescribió en su momento el economista de Cambridge. Keynes defendía que  parar evitar el desempleo es necesaria una decidida intervenciôn pública. No existe tipos de interés naturales que haya que respetar para mantener el equilibrio entre ahorro e inversión. Hay que animar el consumo y la inversión con dinero barato y gasto público. Sin miedo a la inflacción. El sistema monetario ha cambiado mucho desde entonces  y los americanos no se han lanzado a realizar obras públicas como proponía Keynes. Pero la Reserva Federal, fiel a sus fines, a diferencia de lo que hizo en su primera reacción tras la crisis del 29, ha estado aplicando una política de dinero barato, más bien habría que decir que ha estado "fabricando dinero". Las herramientas de intervención monetaria  se han sofisticado mucho hasta el punto de que cuando los  técnicos las explican sólo suelen entenderlos los que tienen buena formación matemática. La inyección masiva de dinero en el sistema ha permitido que la economía estadounidense crezca y tenga una tasa de desempleo  todavía alta para lo que se acostumbra en esas tierras pero no trágica. Los programas de "fabricación" de dinero son tan importanes que, cuando hace unos días Bernankee, el presidente de la Reserva Federal, anunció su retirada, hubo pánico en Wall Street. La reacción ha sido utilizada por los seguidores de Hayek para explicar que una intervención que sostiene artificialmente la relación entre ahorro, inversión y consumo acaba siendo perniciosa. Si la empresa estadounidense tiene pánico al fin de la ayuda es porque no se cree capaz de competir.

Hechas todas las salvedades, la canciller Merkel, que comparace pronto ante las urnas,  habría representado la posición de Hayek. Políticas de ajuste para reducir el deficit y fidelidad del Banco Central Europeo a sus estatutos: el objetivo es controlar la inflación y no crear empleo. Estamos haciendo una caricatura.  Pero se parece a la realidad. Algunos programas de ayuda ha habido, pero sin excesos. Draghi respaldó el año pasado la deuda de los países del sur y así salvó el euro. Se ha rescatado  a los bancos españoles. Pero no se hecho  haya  nada que pueda despertar el fantasma de la súbida de precios. El mismo fantasma que había aterrorizado a Hayek en la Austria de la primera postguerra mundial es el que domina   el subsconciente de los votantes de Merkel que no quieren ver devaluados sus ahorros por la inflacción. "Los bancos centrales, particularmente en Estados Unidos, han hecho esfuerzos para combatir la depresión mediante una política de expansión del crédito, con el resultado de que la depresión ha durado más". La frase es de Hayek pero podría ser de un asesor de la canciller alemana.

El problema es que en este caso la profecía no se ha cumplido. Y Estados Unidos crece y Europa no. Estados Unidos ha sabido combatir el desempleo y Europa no, Estados Unidos sigue contando, es verdad que menos,  y  Europa pierde protagonismo a pasos agigantados.  De momento parece que Keynes gana a Hayek. Aunque hay una cosa en la que Hayek se ha impuesto y esa quizás sea más decisiva que las políticas de gasto y las políticas monetarias. Estados Unidos,  a diferencia de Europa, ha conseguido no ser todavía parte de un Occidente marginal, gracias a las inyecciones de dinero, pero también a  una capacidad de inovacción y de iniciativa que en buena parte del Viejo Continente se ha perdido. Es una cuestíon cultural. O la queja o  el deseo de volver a empezar. Hayek siempre confío en el valor de esa iniciativa. Para volver a empezar, para generar una novedad que sea competitiva, hace falta una gran pasión por la realidad y sencillez para aprender. Como siempre, acabamos en la educación.

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