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Mal pronóstico para 2014

Horacio Morel (Buenos Aires) | 86 comentarios valoración: 3  168 votos
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"Viento del sudeste, lluvia como peste" dice un popular refrán que constituye una suerte de dogma climático en Buenos Aires. Como la sudestada que preanuncia una gran tormenta se presenta el actual momento político y económico que vive la Argentina.

Vacío de poder y una economía que se deteriora día a día son el signo del evidente desgaste político que sufre el oficialismo. Luego de las primarias de agosto y las legislativas de octubre, que significaron una seria derrota para el kirchnerismo y la sepultura definitiva de sus aspiraciones de perpetuarse en el poder mediante una reforma constitucional, la convalecencia por enfermedad de la presidenta Cristina Kirchner (real o no, sobredimensionada o no, curiosamente oportuna o no), mantuvo a la mandataria lejos de la escena política hasta hoy mismo, con escasas apariciones públicas, trasmitiendo a la sociedad un mensaje de ausencia que los esfuerzos de los funcionarios de un inexistente equipo de gobierno no logran disimular. Las dos caras visibles del gabinete, el ministro de economía Axel Kicillof y el jefe de ministros Jorge Capitanich, han incurrido en este último tiempo en frecuentes contradicciones y desautorizaciones, no sin dejar de destacar ambos que es "Cristina quien toma las decisiones" y sembrando por tanto la duda de si entre los dos funcionarios existe un problema de comunicación o si las marchas y contramarchas son de autoría de la propia presidenta.

En todo caso, Cristina pierde el liderazgo político pero no las mañas, ya que tomó estado público que durante su estancia de tres semanas en El Calafate, su patagónico "lugar en el mundo", se ocupó del inicio de la construcción de su cuarto hotel de lujo, asentado sobre tierras que una vez fueron fiscales y adquiridas a precio más que conveniente.

Entretanto, los políticos y los sindicalistas hacen su clásico juego de verano tejiendo alianzas en vistas al recambio institucional, legalmente previsto para 2015. Aunque el diputado Sergio Massa y el gobernador Daniel Scioli (ambos de origen peronista que ocuparon cargos públicos durante la etapa kirchnerista) lideran, en ese orden, las encuestas que miden la intención de voto para presidente, la recurrencia a viejas prácticas políticas -tan disociadas de la voluntad de cambio que la misma sociedad manifestó votándolos en octubre pasado- puede poner en riesgo su capital político de cara a 2015. No obstante a ello, la virtual deserción de toda oposición de real signo diferente (con la excepción del jefe de gobierno porteño, Mauricio Macri, quien empero se muestra todavía poco enérgico a la hora de jugar sus chances presidenciales) facilita los planes de Massa y de Scioli. La diferencia entre uno y otro es que el primero se muestra más proactivo en materia de iniciativas y se diferenció más claramente del gobierno, mientras que el otro parece correr tras los problemas que enfrenta como gobernador -que no son pocos- y por necesidad o conveniencia nunca hizo formal ni público su divorcio "K".

La inflación se acelera, y las estimaciones de un 20/25 por ciento anual de otros años se muestran claramente insuficientes para este 2014. Habrá que pensar en 30/35/40 por ciento, siempre que el gobierno logre hacer equilibrio sobre la ola que le toca surfear; de lo contrario, al ritmo que bajan las reservas y crece la devaluación, el pronóstico en materia de evolución de precios podría ser peor.

La Argentina ha comenzado las negociaciones para cancelar su deuda con el "Club de París", paso insoslayable para volver al mercado de capitales del que se autoexcluyó tras el default de 2001/2002 y la llamada "política de desendeudamiento" llevada adelante por el kirchnerismo, no obstante la cual eligió endeudarse con la Venezuela de Chávez al 15 por ciento anual de interés mientras que el mundo financiero prestaba al 2 por ciento.

El regreso al mercado internacional es, al mismo tiempo, una necesidad imperiosa y una claudicación ideológica para el kirchnerismo, que se dispone en cualquier caso a dejar una pesada herencia al gobierno que lo suceda, sea del signo que sea. El año 2014 se presenta imprevisible, como una sudestada, que puede tomar por sorpresa al mejor navegante del Río de la Plata. Si sopla viento del sudeste...

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