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1 ABRIL 2020
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>Entrevista a David Cano, socio de AFI

'Argentina tiene que aprender de sus vecinos'

José María Gutiérrez Montero | 72 comentarios valoración: 3  189 votos
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Hablamos con David Cano, director de "El ahorrador inteligente", la guía de finanzas personales de Afi, publicada por Espasa y Director General de AFI, sobre las causas y consecuencias de la crisis del peso argentino.

¿Cuál es la causa de la crisis del peso en Argentina?

La causa de la crisis del peso argentino es ante todo una causa económica. Es un país de grandes desequilibrios donde se ha seguido una política económica equivocada. Ha crecido mucho la inflación. Las autoridades monetarias han intentado evitarlo, pero al final se han tenido que rendir a lo inevitable. La crisis del peso por lo tanto es el reflejo de un desequilibrio macroeconómico.

¿Qué importancia tiene la tasa de inflación y la caída de las exportaciones?

Es la clave. La elevada inflación lleva a un país a perder competitividad, y esto tiene que reflejarse. Cuando un país pierde competitividad, deja de exportar. La tasa de inflación y la caída de las exportaciones son reflejos de esta política económica equivocada.

¿La supresión del cepo cambiario puede surtir algún efecto?

Ese es el gran reto, pero hay que esperar un poco. Parece que lo único que puede cambiar por el momento es una devaluación adicional del peso.

¿Qué política necesita en este momento Argentina?

Por un lado, la devaluación de la que hemos hablado, y por otro lado la ortodoxia monetaria. Un Banco Central independiente que durante estos años ha faltado, dejar entrar inversión extranjera, que durante estos últimos años se ha obstaculizado. Todo lo contrario de lo que se ha hecho estos últimos años. Argentina debe hacer políticas parecidas a las de algunos de sus vecinos latinoamericanos, como Perú, Brasil, Chile o Colombia.

¿Por qué las divisas de los países emergentes están en crisis? ¿Tiene algo que ver el hecho de buscar unas rentabilidades excesivas?

Al final los movimientos a corto plazo conviene minimizarlos. Esto está equivocado, porque no todos los países emergentes son lo mismo. Sí que entendemos que en las próximas semanas deberían castigar a los que tienen alta inflación, pero no a todos los países, es necesario que los mercados discriminen entre los países emergentes dónde se está siguiendo una buena política económica y dónde no.

¿Y cómo es de importante que la FED haya anunciado un cambio de política monetaria suprimiendo los estímulos?

Seguramente no tendrá tanta importancia directa, pero marca un punto de inflexión, como el gatillo que activa el replanteamiento de lo que sucede con los mercados emergentes.

¿Qué consecuencias puede tener todo esto en el crecimiento?

Al final, los países emergentes son un motor de la economía mundial. Es, por tanto, peligroso que sus economías estén en crisis. Ahora es quizá menos peligroso porque las economías desarrolladas, Europa y Japón, están abandonando la recesión, pero la recuperación aún no está del todo consolidada. Por lo tanto, si se traslada a los mercados desarrollados puede tener algún peligro.


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