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16 JULIO 2020
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>Entrevista a Narciso Michavila

"Todo se va a jugar en la campaña electoral"

José María Gutiérrez | 122 comentarios valoración: 3  131 votos
Vota 1 2 3 4 5
Resultado 3  131 votos

Hay todavía mucho indeciso para las elecciones del 25 de mayo, ¿cómo puede evolucionar ese voto indeciso?

La ventaja del PP sobre el PSOE no es suficiente para determinar qué partido ganará finalmente. Igual que en las elecciones de Andalucía y de Cataluña estamos detectando una volatilidad enorme y un elevado número de indecisos. Todo se va a jugar en la campaña electoral.

¿Entre los votantes habituales del PP crece el deseo de "darle un aviso" a la formación?

El mayor riesgo del PP es que sus votantes consideran que estas elecciones no son determinantes y es la oportunidad para darle un toque al gobierno. Sucede en este tipo de elecciones en todos los países europeos donde los gobiernos son derrotados en las urnas. Sucederá en Francia, Reino Unido, Portugal…

¿La abstención puede ser muy alta? ¿Va a crecer mucho UPyD e IU?

España ha tenido en europeas una participación superior a la media, en esta ocasión bajará algo más y se situará ligeramente por encima del 40%. Eso hace que la precisión de las encuestas sea menor: pocos votos alteran el resultado final. Tanto IU como UPyD multiplicarán sus resultados respecto a 2009 pero no en la medida que dábamos en las encuestas de hace meses. Obtendrán representación nuevas formaciones: ahora las que más opciones tienen son: Bildu, Podemos, Ciudadanos y EQUO.

El PP está planteando la campaña en términos internos, vendiendo sus logros económicos. ¿Es inteligente?

Desde el comienzo de la crisis la economía y el empleo son determinantes en el voto. En este sentido el PP ha planteado una estrategia clarifying y el PSOE una estrategia insurgent. Es decir, los populares han apostado por hablar de economía y de empleo, mientras los socialistas han optado por una campaña más ideológica: aborto, desigualdad… Este tipo de campañas insurgent para evitar hablar de economía no suelen dar buenos resultados en elecciones de primer orden –presidenciales o legislativas– pero las europeas son de segundo orden. Sólo la noche electoral sabremos quién acertó.

El PSOE ha rescatado a Zapatero, ¿un error?

El acto de la candidata socialista, Elena Valenciano, con el ex presidente es coherente con la línea ideológica de su campaña encaminada a sacar votantes de la abstención. La cuestión no es tanto si el rescate del ex presidente es acertado sino si la estrategia es acertada. El resultado lo dirá.

¿Cómo puede reflejarse la cuestión del aborto?

El abandono del equilibrio entre el derecho a la vida y el derecho a decidir le costó al PSOE muchos votos en las elecciones europeas –como reconoció el propio Alfonso Guerra– y aún más en las elecciones generales. El PSOE vuelve a equivocarse en un asunto donde le falta por hacer un análisis riguroso y serio sobre la realidad social del aborto. En todo caso, el PSOE no es el único que demuestra su progresivo alejamiento de la realidad social del país.

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