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Europa: más atención y menos abstención

José Manuel de Torres | 181 comentarios valoración: 3  91 votos
Vota 1 2 3 4 5
Resultado 3  91 votos
Fuente: CIS. PREELECTORAL ELECCIONES AL PARLAMENTO EUROPEO 2014 AVANCE DE RESULTADOS. Estudio nº 3022. Abril 2014

El próximo 25 de mayo los españoles acudiremos a las urnas para elegir a los 54 diputados que nos representarán en el Parlamento Europeo los próximos cinco años y que serán clave para decidir el futuro político y económico de la Unión Europea. Eso significa que España elegirá al 7% de un total de 751 diputados europeos y cuatro parlamentarios más de los 50 elegidos en las anteriores elecciones europeas de 2009.

Partiendo de estos datos básicos, las últimas encuestas electorales publicadas (y más concretamente la del CIS del jueves 7 de mayo) indican dos cuestiones trascendentales: en primer lugar, una caída abrupta en la intención de voto de los dos grandes partidos nacionales, PP y PSOE, que de sumar más del 80% de los votos en 2009, si se cumplen las encuestas, rondarían ahora una intención conjunta de voto del 65%. Y en segundo lugar, pero no menos importante, un aumento considerable de la ya preocupante cifra de abstención producida en 2009, que del 55% podría acercarse e incluso sobrepasar ahora el umbral del 60%.

Un análisis más detallado del primer caso, la caída en torno al 15% de los votos totales al PP y al PSOE, no parece suficiente para evitar que ambas formaciones políticas sigan acaparando, merced al sistema electoral, la mayoría de escaños (alrededor de las ¾ partes), pues de cumplirse los pronósticos los populares estarían en un entorno de 20-22 frente a los actuales 23, y los socialistas obtendrían entre 18 y 19 diputados frente a los 21 que hoy mantienen. En todo caso, lo que sí sería cierto es que el peso total de ambas formaciones caería notablemente no sólo porque ahora se eligen cuatro parlamentarios más, sino porque las demás formaciones políticas conseguirían cerca de una quincena de escaños, cuando en las pasadas elecciones sólo obtuvieron 7, destacando las proyecciones estimadas para formaciones como IU-ICV (5 escaños) o UPyD (3) que lograrían doblar o triplicar sus números. ¿Significaría ello, como algunos han pretendido ver, el principio del fin del bipartidismo? No parece probable, aunque no hay que olvidar que las elecciones europeas normalmente marcan tendencias que luego deben consolidarse en las siguientes elecciones locales o nacionales.

Mucho más preocupante y sintomático es el aumento anunciado de la abstención, que de producirse sólo podría interpretarse como un distanciamiento o un desentendimiento de los españoles de los asuntos europeos o, lo que sería peor, como un voto de castigo ciudadano hacia la política y los políticos en general, como el aumento del hastío ciudadano ante los continuos escándalos de corrupción económica y política o, peor aún, como una creciente falta de confianza en el sistema de representación democrático.

En todo caso, ambas cuestiones, la pérdida de votos del PP y del PSOE y el aumento de la abstención, resultan especialmente graves y delicadas para unas elecciones en las que los españoles nos jugamos mucho más de lo que creemos a primera vista. Y, de hecho, sería necesario conocerlo.

Para empezar, y después de las nuevas funciones otorgadas por el Tratado de Lisboa, será la primera vez que el Parlamento Europeo sea decisivo en el nombramiento del nuevo presidente de la Comisión Europea que sustituya a Durão Barroso. Así, la Eurocámara, a través de los representantes elegidos por todos los ciudadanos de la Unión Europea, tendrá que aprobar la candidatura propuesta por los 28 países miembros de la UE. De hecho, el nombre saldrá con mucha probabilidad de entre los candidatos ya elegidos por los dos grandes partidos europeos, el antiguo presidente del Eurogrupo, Jean-Claude Juncker, propuesto por el Partido Popular Europeo, o el exprimer ministro del Parlamento Europeo, Martin Schulz, propuesto por el Partido Socialista Europeo.

Pero es que también la renovación del Parlamento Europeo significará la posibilidad de elegir a los políticos que administrarán seguramente el fin de la crisis económica en la zona euro y aprobarán la nueva legislación que regirá los destinos económicos y políticos de la UE los próximos cinco años. Y el asunto no es baladí si tenemos en cuenta el nuevo peso específico del Parlamento Europeo tanto en relación a la Comisión Europea como en la aprobación de leyes y en la toma de decisiones hasta ahora exclusivas de los Estados.

Volviendo a la política nacional, el candidato popular, Miguel Arias Cañete, parte con la ventaja aparente de ser un político de largo recorrido y contar con una reconocida trayectoria tanto en el Gobierno de España como ministro de Agricultura en dos ocasiones, como por su acreditada capacidad negociadora con la Unión Europea, ante la que ya fuera eurodiputado entre los años 1986 y 1999. Su demostrada experiencia política debe ser pues ahora refrendada en una campaña electoral capaz de ilusionar a un votante del Partido Popular renuente aún en algún caso a volver a depositar su confianza en un partido que ha sacrificado muchas de sus promesas electorales, económicas pero también políticas, en aras de una recuperación y una salida de la crisis que tarda en reflejarse en las economías familiares de las clases medias. De ahí que el distanciamiento y la apatía puedan engrosar la abstención más de lo que el candidato se merece. Evitarlo será su dura tarea.

Por su parte, la candidata socialista, Elena Valenciano, actual vicesecretaria del PSOE, con larga experiencia también como europarlamentaria entre 1999 y 2008, en vez de diferenciarse con un mensaje socialdemócrata moderno, centrado, renovador, europeo y distinto al de los últimos años del socialismo radical de Zapatero, e intentar volver a conectar con un electorado más centrado o plantear soluciones a los importantes retos europeos que nos esperan, parece haberse decantado por una campaña electoral de corte radical, en clave feminista y proaborto, basada en la descalificación del adversario político y en la anatematización global ante los medios de comunicación de las políticas nacionales del Gobierno de Rajoy. Lo cual no parece, a tenor de las últimas encuestas, reflejar grandes entusiasmos en el electorado más allá del ya convencido, ni ser el mejor camino para el triunfo electoral.

En todo caso, en el comienzo de una campaña electoral marcada por la desafección y la indiferencia de una parte de la ciudadanía, está por ver cuál de las dos estrategias termina por dar mejores réditos y permite remover las conciencias electorales adormecidas. Y veremos además hasta qué punto las demás opciones políticas son capaces de lograr atraer el voto descontento hacia socialistas y populares. Y es que Europa merece por todos más atención y menos abstención.

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