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70 años después de Bretton Woods, la misma tentación

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El 22 de julio de 1944, en una ciudad de New Hampshire, muy probablemente hasta entonces conocida solo por sus habitantes, se firmaban los acuerdos de Bretton Woods. El problema económico fundamental de la posguerra, que la conferencia de Bretton Woods trataba de afrontar, era evitar un sistema de cambios flexibles que habrían alimentado las razones del conflicto internacional. Para evitarlo se puso en marcha un proceso institucional que finalizaría con la creación de instituciones internacionales y un sistema de conversión de moneda a un tipo de cambio fijo.

En la primavera de 1944 se presentó ante los países miembros de las Naciones Unidas el Plan Keynes y el Plan White, que tomaban el nombre de los dos principales ponentes. Mientras el primero proponía una unión internacional de Clearing, el segundo planteaba un fondo internacional de estabilidad. En ambos casos, el objetivo era identificar un mecanismo para resolver el problema económico de la posguerra: equilibro del déficit, balanza de pagos deficitaria, restricción de la demanda exterior, recesión internacional. En definitiva, con los acuerdos de Bretton Woods se pretendía buscar un mecanismo de cambio cooperativo global para restablecer el equilibrio entre las naciones.

El Plan Keynes proponía una banca central supranacional y una unidad monetaria internacional, para compensar el déficit de la balanza de pagos. El objetivo era institucionalizar un gobierno mundial de la moneda mediante incentivos y penalizaciones, respectivamente, para los casos de déficit o superávit. El Plan White proponía un fondo de estabilidad que podría conceder créditos a los países con déficit en su balanza de pagos, previa compatibilidad de su política económica, vinculando la situación de cada estado miembro al dólar, y este al oro: cambio áureo.

El 1 de julio de 1944 dio comienzo en Bretton Woods la Conferencia Monetaria y Financiera Internacional de las Naciones Unidas, que concluiría el 22 de julio con un compromiso entre Keynes y White y el nacimiento del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y la Banca Internacional para la Reconstrucción y el Desarrollo (BIRD). La primera institución correspondía a la propuesta de White, la segunda a la de Keynes. En la práctica, se establecía la convertibilidad de los valores en dólares y la vinculación de este último al oro, con una oscilación máxima del 1%. Una vez establecida la paridad monetaria, nadie podría modificarla sino para corregir un desequilibrio fundamental y después de haber aceptado las sugerencias del Fondo. La defensa de la paridad bilateral se confiaba a manos de los bancos centrales que, mediante intervenciones en el mercado monetario, comprando o vendiendo, reconducirían la situación dentro de los parámetros fijados.

El mecanismo resultante será el de la doble convertibilidad, llamado Gold Exchange Standard, según el cual el valor estadounidense asumía el punto central del sistema monetario internacional, convirtiéndose en medio de pago e instrumento de reserva. Este mecanismo preveía que los países se comprometieran a convertir su propio valor en dólares a un precio fijo, reservándose el derecho (amenaza) de convertir los dólares en oro al precio acordado. De cualquier modo, esta amenaza no fue suficiente y las razones políticas, unidas a rigideces internas, decretaron el fracaso del mecanismo que entró en vigor a finales de 1958.

En los años 60 aumentó el coste de producción del oro y el dólar se depreció. Los dólares procedentes del déficit de la balanza de pagos se convirtieron en fuente de liquidez internacional: la Reserva Federal habría debido incrementar sus reservas áureas en una medida proporcional a la emisión de dólares, pero el cambio, siendo anacrónico, resultó insuficiente para remunerar la producción. El aumento del gasto público estadounidense para financiar la guerra en Vietnam y el creciente endeudamiento hicieron aumentar las demandas de conversión de dólares en oro. De hecho, el 15 de agosto de 1971, el presidente Richard Nixon declaró la suspensión de la convertibilidad en oro. Al final, se llegó a un acuerdo en diciembre de 1971, el Smithsonian Agreement, que comportó la devaluación del dólar y el retorno a cambios fluctuantes. Pero el fin de los acuerdos de Bretton Woods no significó el desmantelamiento de las instituciones que había creado y, si bien con fines distintos, el Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Banco Central sobrevivieron, mientras que el General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT) se vio sustituido en 1995 por la World Trade Organization (WTO – Organización Mundial del Comercio, OMC).

Mucho ha llovido desde entonces y la institución de la moneda única europea ha modificado el escenario económico y monetario internacional. La crisis financiera y económica que sufrimos desde el año 2007 y el nacimiento de nuevas economías emergentes (Brics) han llevado a algunos expertos y estudiosos economistas a proponer la convocatoria de un gran congreso, una especie de nuevo Bretton Woods para volver a discutir las reglas del juego económico a nivel global. En tal caso, sería oportuno tener clara una idea sobre el objeto y el método de trabajo.

Si se trata de reequilibrar el peso de las economías tradicionalmente avanzadas con el de las economías de los países emergentes, registramos un significativo paso adelante con los acuerdos de Fortaliza del pasado 16 de julio y la constitución de la llamaba Banca Brics, articulada en el New Development Bank (NDB) y en un fondo de reserva monetario denominado Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA – Acuerdo de Reservas de Contingencia). El banco tendrá sede en Shanghai y empezará a funcionar el año que viene, tendrá un gobernador ruso, un jefe de administración brasileño y un presidente indio. A él se podrán adherir otros países de Naciones Unidas, si bien la cuota de países Brics no podrá bajar del 55%.

Su objetivo manifiesto es “reforzar, sobre la base de sanos principios bancarios, la cooperación entre los países Brics, integrar los esfuerzos de las instituciones financieras multilaterales y regionales para el desarrollo global, contribuyendo a conseguir el objetivo de un crecimiento fuerte, sostenible y equilibrado”. En la práctica, como han apuntado algunos analistas, se trata del nacimiento de un nuevo Banco Mundial y la superación de la lógica de Bretton Woods, que veía en Estados Unidos y el dólar el centro del sistema global, dotado de amplias reservas, y se presenta como alternativa al FMI y el BM, creando las premisas de una nueva arquitectura y gobierno financiero global.

Un discurso distinto si por “nuevo Bretton Woods” entendemos la operación de ingeniería y de gobierno dirigida a pretender rediseñar sobre la mesa “la arquitectura del nuevo capitalismo”, una autoridad política y económica global, esta vez inmune a los límites e imperfecciones que causaron la crisis del sistema actual. Para avanzar en esta dirección, en primer lugar, habría que compartir el juicio sobre el capitalismo y las razones de la crisis, y hasta hoy no me parece que haya tal punto de vista compartido. Pero sobre todo debemos estar de acuerdo en la hipótesis de que la crisis actual esté dando lugar a un nuevo modelo económico que prescinda del libre mercado global, o bien que no esté, hablando con más realismo, corrigiendo distorsiones para permitir a las instituciones un mejor funcionamiento.

Aunque puede ser que tengan razón aquellos que sostienen que la gravedad de la crisis actual necesita una revolución paradigmática y no solo profundas reformas momentáneas, creo que nadie posee los instrumentos analíticos, el conocimiento ni la suficiente perspectiva histórica para prever cuál será, desde un punto de vista sistémico, el resultado de la crisis actual. En 1944 cayó física y culturalmente un mundo en Bretton Woods, definitivamente fracasó una cierta idea de nación, había vencedores y vencidos, el objeto del “sínodo” estaba claro para todos y también la identificación del método de trabajo parecía razonablemente compartida.

Por tanto, una cosa es trabajar para institucionalizar la poliarquía y reequilibrar posiciones de  posiciones de dominio anacrónicas, y otra es proclamar la sentencia de muerte de la “mano invisible”. Algunos sostienen que la crisis actual demuestra que cada vez es más necesaria una “mano invisible” y que un nuevo Bretton Woods debería orientar a los estados en esta dirección. Es evidente que ha entrado en crisis una cierta interpretación anarcoide del mercado y es justo evidenciar sus límites teóricos. De todas formas, sabemos que el expediente de la “mano invisible” fue elaborado por Smith “no tanto y no solo” para consolidar teóricamente el “laissez faire”, sino para evidenciar “también y sobre todo” un dato epistemológico conocido desde siempre por los estudiosos de las ciencias sociales: el problema de las consecuencias no intencionadas de las acciones intencionadas. Un nuevo Bretton Woods, a la luz de la teoría de la “mano invisible”, debería tener en cuenta en primer lugar las consecuencias no intencionadas de los planos puestos en pie por el “gran arquitecto” de turno.

En resumen, en términos económicos, ¿existen acciones “buenas por sí mismas” que nos eximan de la responsabilidad de controlar las consecuencias? ¿O deberíamos preocuparnos también por las consecuencias no intencionadas de acciones puestas en marcha por personas movidas por las mejores intenciones? La sabiduría popular en este punto ofrece una miríada de proverbios, axiomas y anécdotas que todos conocemos.

El broker que actúa en vista de las consecuencias, no solo para sí sino también para los demás, contribuiría a construir un sistema financiero más virtuoso. Por tanto, el “sistema” depende de la perspectiva moral del bróker, y de muchos bróker, del banquero y de muchos banqueros, del empresario y de muchos empresarios, del gobernador y de muchos gobernantes. Las reglas son expresión de una determinada perspectiva antropológica, que nunca es neutra, siempre es hija de una visión ética.

Por eso no me convence un nuevo Bretton Woods que establezca objetivos salvíficos, mientras que encuentro extremadamente interesante el nacimiento de nuevas instituciones que de hecho modifican desde dentro el sistema económico internacional; si el desafío es moral, ¿con qué podremos sustituir un sistema que por sí mismo no niega la virtud, pero que en todo caso no la favorece, no la premia y, afortunadamente, no la impone, con otro sistema igualmente imperfecto? Deberíamos esforzarnos en corregir el sistema global, cada vez más poliárquico, y hacer lo más inocuas posibles las acciones viciadas, mediante un sistema de gobernación constituido por pesos y contrapesos (reglas y controles) que se ha dado en llamar “Global Polity”. Sin embargo, ¿existirá alguna vez un sistema político-económico (hecho de hombres para otros hombres) que “haga imposible el mal”, en virtud del cual el hombre no pueda hacer otra cosa que actuar siempre de un modo virtuoso para sí mismo y para los demás, y que tal acción virtuosa represente un bien para todos y cada uno? ¿O acaso esta no sería otra noble versión de la omnipresente tentación de la serpiente?

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