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1 OCTUBRE 2020

Italia, sin Presidente de la República

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Resultado 4  749 votos

Lo primero que debe recordarse es que la jefatura de Estado en Italia es mucho más que un mero cargo institucional. En efecto, el Presidente de la República italiana goza de importantes prerrogativas, entre las que sobresalen la capacidad de encargar formar Gobierno, la convocatoria de elecciones cuando lo estime necesario o el veto temporal a leyes que no sean de su agrado. Por otra parte, se trata de un puesto reservado a figuras de prestigio nacional, como lo han sido, por ejemplo, Carlos Azeglio Ciampi, Oscar Luigi Scalfaro o el propio Giorgio Napolitano.

En ese sentido, la elección del presidente de la República es donde más se pone a prueba la capacidad de consenso entre las habitualmente muy divididas fuerzas políticas italianas. Hay que recordar que el último presidente elegido con un amplio apoyo fue Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, quien en mayo de 1999 logró un total de 707 votos sobre 1010 posibles, y además lo hizo en primera votación. Pero las cosas han cambiado mucho desde entonces. La propia elección de Napolitano en 2006 fue realizada ya tras la tercera votación (por tanto, ya sin necesidad de dos tercios de la cámara, bastando la mayoría absoluta) y sin que hubieran podido salir adelante ni el principal candidato del centroizquierda (Massimo D´Alema) ni del centroderecha (Gianni Letta). Tampoco lograron el consenso necesario el sindicalista Franco Marini, el excomisario europeo Mario Monti, y los exprimeros ministros Lamberto Dini y Giualiano Amato. Sin embargo, lo sucedido en abril de 2013, cuando el vencedor en las elecciones de ese año (Pier Luigi Bersani), fue incapaz de sacar adelante a sus diferentes candidatos y le acabó costando la dimisión como Secretario General del Partido Democrático y por tanto la renuncia a ser Primer Ministro, debe preocupar a un Matteo Renzi que va a necesitar, sí o sí, el apoyo de Silvio Berlusconi, una vez más árbitro de la política italiana a pesar de encontrarse desde hace tiempo en franca decadencia.

Si contamos los votos de la coalición que apoya al Gobierno de Renzi (Partido Democrático, Nuovo Centrodestra y Scelta Civica), en este momento Renzi cuenta con un total de 517 votos (307 de la Cámara de Diputados y 151 del Senado), lo que sería suficiente para obtener una mayoría absoluta pero no cualificada ya que no llegaría a los dos tercios de los votos. Sin embargo, esto sería para Renzi aceptar entrar por un auténtico "campo de minas", ya que, al ser secreta la votación, la izquierda de su partido (encabezada por D´Alema, Bersani y Bindy) podría llenarse de "francotiradores" (personas que votan en contra de su propio partido aprovechando que la votación es secreta) e infringir una grave derrota a su denostado Primer Ministro. Así que lo más seguro es que, en virtud del llamado "Pacto del Nazareno", acuda de nuevo a Berlusconi y pacten entre ambos un candidato de consenso, toda vez que Berlusconi sí tiene, a día de hoy, totalmente controlado su grupo parlamentario. Con los votos de Forza Italia, Renzi podría hacer cábalas sobre la base de unos 647 apoyos, ya que Berlusconi aporta setenta diputados y sesenta senadores.

La pregunta ahora es: ¿a qué Primer Ministro aceptaría Il Cavaliere? Dos nombres suenan con fuerza: el de Romano Prodi y ya, a mayor distancia, Mario Monti, sin olvidar, como siempre, un posible "tapado". Los dos (Prodi y Monti) cumplen a la perfección los requisitos fundamentales: saben lo que es la alta política (ambos han sido primeros ministros), serían bien vistos por las instituciones europeas (ambos han trabajado directamente para éstas) y los dos son figuras de prestigio. Sin embargo, Prodi parte con más ventaja que Monti, ya que Berlusconi podría querer vengarse de la afrenta que para él supuso que Monti aceptara ser Primer Ministro en una maniobra (noviembre de 2011) negociada entre Napolitano y él en detrimento de Il Cavaliere. Claro que no hay que olvidar que Prodi, a su vez, se permitió derrotar hasta en dos ocasiones (1996 y 2006) a Berlusconi, si bien éste se encuentra en deuda con aquel desde que a comienzos de 2008 hiciera caer el segundo Gobierno Prodi sobornando a un grupo de senadores del centroizquierda, como ha reconocido uno de los implicados (Sergio de Gregorio). En todo caso, sea quien sea finalmente el elegido, Renzi va a ver visto a prueba más que nunca su liderazgo, y de lo que suceda en este tema dependerá la estabilidad política de Italia en estos meses cruciales para el futuro del país.

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Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes es Doctor en Historia Contemporánea por la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Especialista en Historia de la España actual, ha publicado varios libros sobre el tema de la Iglesia durante el franquismo y la Transición. Sus investigaciones le llevaron a realizar numerosas estancias de investigación en Italia, donde comenzó a interesarse por la realidad italiana. Su último libro es 'El laberinto italiano. Del fenómeno Berlusconi a la crisis actual, 1994-2014'
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