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El riesgo de Tsipras es que la UE no le entienda

Luca Passoni | 181 comentarios valoración: 3  193 votos
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El famoso comentario de Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy, stupid”, puede resultar útil para interpretar el resultado, aún en proceso de resolverse, de las elecciones griegas. Los electores helenos han expresado una decisión muy clara y sería un error considerarlos como un pueblo ingenuo, destinado a ser inexorablemente traicionado por una serie poco creíble de promesas gratuitas.

Podemos admitir que las promesas de Alexis Tsipras son “avanzadas”, pero sería un error afirmar que en una democracia no precisamente joven, como la de Grecia, eso perjudique considerablemente la candidez del electorado. Son “promesas” que por otro lado han sido tomadas muy en serio por el gobierno de Berlín. Al día siguiente de la rueda de prensa de Tsipras y ¬Renzi en Roma, no pasaron desapercibidas las declaraciones del ministro de Finanzas alemán, Wolfgang Schauble: “Italia ha hecho sus reformas”, afirmó. Una “promoción” no del todo compartida, pero para Alemania sería demasiado arriesgado reunir en un único frente a Italia y Grecia, mañana a España y quizás también a Francia, por no hablar del presidente de BCE, Mario Draghi.

Si leemos los números de la economía griega, por otra parte, podemos intuir que la población puede estar exasperada por los nombres y símbolos de las burocracias actuales, como troika, UE, FMI, BCE. Estos nombres se presentan como entidades ultraterrenas cuyos dictados parecen ser indiscutibles. Y el resultado es el evidente rechazo ante propuestas que tenían la intención de ofrecer una ayuda (interesada, es innegable, como demuestra el nuevo equilibrio de los sistemas financieros alemán y francés) ante una dificultad creada de manera autónoma dentro de Grecia. Una dificultad acrecentada por la intuición del consejero gubernamental que tuvo el coraje de explicar a su primer ministro que Grecia estaba a punto de saltar por los aires, pero que la dimensión del problema se podía considerar como irrelevante.

El nuevo premier, Alexis Tsipras, se encuentra en la situación de quien seguramente ha entendido la composición del puzle, pero si escucha a la multitud (el voto de protesta en Grecia ha sido evidentemente dominante) debe hallar la forma de unir las piezas. El riesgo que corre este país, y el resto de Europa, es que una decepción por parte de este gobierno podría producir una rápida reorientación del electorado hacia opciones más “prometedoras”. El razonamiento sobre Grecia llama la atención sobre un componente de la política económica que ha sido el gran ausente estos años: la política fiscal. El uso de esta leva debería ser anti-cíclico, una parte de Europa no considera que existan espacios para su uso racional, el consenso electoral (local) en esta línea parece muy fuerte, tanto como la reticencia a probar opiniones marginalmente distintas.

Los costes sociales que la población europea en parte ya está afrontando y en parte afrontará en el escenario que se prevé, no serán pocos (el desempleo juvenil, considerable tanto por sus dimensiones como por su duración, ya se puede considerar como una grave injusticia). La salida de la crisis económica europea será muy lenta mientras no madure a nivel político una capacidad para leer la realidad de un modo distinto. En vez de buscar solo el equilibrio como un tótem al que tender sin declarar explícitamente el motivo, una lectura de la realidad económica actual –que tampoco tiene que ser muy innovadora– podría considerar que el nivel actual de los tipos de interés, aun a largo plazo, es una ocasión que podría no volver a plantearse en breve, una ocasión que no conviene perder para realizar obras públicas que estén en condiciones de restituir grandes rendimientos si se realizan pensando en el futuro a largo plazo de un país, o de una comunidad de países, si queremos aceptar que Europa existe y queremos trabajar para que siga existiendo.

La contabilidad utilizada para valorar lo realizado por un gobernante tiende a fijarse en cuánto ha costado, más que en cuánto ha dejado de hacer o crear. Los daños causados por omisión pueden ser inmensos en comparación con los errores tradicionales. Otro tema que parece cada vez más extendido en el modo de pensar actual en Europa es la confusión que existe al interpretar las finanzas y la economía como objetivos y no por lo que son y deben seguir siendo: puros instrumentos.

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