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Canadá se interroga ante la crisis del petróleo

Lucas de Haro, Vancouver | 168 comentarios valoración: 3  34 votos
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El viaje emprendido hace algunos años por Estados Unidos hacia el autoabastecimiento de petróleo siempre ha contado con el papel decisivo de Canadá, su aliado del norte, que le provee el 15% del crudo que consume. Teniendo presente esta premisa, no es de extrañar que la actual crisis de precios del crudo se esté siguiendo muy de cerca en el Great White North.

Canadá (el Great White North, como la llaman cariñosamente los norteamericanos) es un país tan grande (sólo Rusia es mayor) y diversificado que, raramente, un sector puede hacer tambalear su economía global. En las últimas décadas, las provincias de Alberta y la Columbia Británica han conseguido llevar al Oeste parte del poder económico y político acumulado en las históricas Ontario y Quebec. El Oeste, con un 25% de la población total, contribuye en un 30% al PIB nacional. En este proceso de descentralización, la industria petrolera de Alberta ha sido una pieza clave. Un vuelo en Google Earth alrededor de Fort McMurry da una buena idea de la extensión de las explotaciones petrolíferas en la zona, algo similar podemos observar si bajamos el ratón hasta Texas (¡coincidencias entre la Provincia y el Estado de los cowboys, la ternera, los rodeos y el oil&gas!).

El sector energético en Alberta supone el 25% de la economía de esa provincia y suministra, aproximadamente, el 70% del petróleo y gas natural canadienses. Digamos que, en los últimos años, oil&gas han pasado a ser oil and gas; es decir, los dos mercados han madurado tanto que cada día son más independientes entre ellos. Hay sobre la mesa varios proyectos de ampliación y nueva construcción de pipelines para gas y petróleo entre Alberta y la costa pacífica de la Columbia Británica que están experimentando muy diferentes acogidas por la opinión pública ya que los grupos sociales y medioambientales muestran una oposición mucho más agresiva a los oleoductos que a los gaseoductos. Alberta también está en el origen de uno de los debates más intensos de la política estadounidense en los últimos meses: la pipeline Keystone XL que plantea unir Canadá con el Golfo de México. Obama y la Agencia de Protección Medioambiental estadounidense se oponen a este proyecto que apoya el Senado de mayoría republicana.

Y en este panorama se sitúa la actual crisis que a muchos recuerda a la de 1999. Inversiones por valor de 60.000 millones de dólares canadienses serán congeladas o pospuestas, ciertas empresas del sector han comenzado los despidos masivos y se prevé que Alberta entre en recesión en 2015. Mientras tanto, el sector financiero asegura que sus carteras están suficientemente diversificadas para amortiguar el impacto negativo de la industria petrolífera y la bolsa de Toronto intenta recuperarse tras sendas caídas vertiginosas los pasados meses de octubre y diciembre. Parece que la reducción de los tipos de interés del Banco de Canadá hasta el 0.75% está ayudando a que la crisis no contagie a otros sectores.

La sociedad canadiense no se alarma tanto como otras al recibir ciertas noticias, sin embargo estas semanas se oye hablar de petróleo en las calles. Hace unos días almorzaba con un colega abogado que peina unas cuantas canas más que yo y me decía, con bastante flema, que ésta es la cuarta crisis del petróleo que él vive y que las empresas de ese sector no deberían apresurarse con despidos y frenazos en las inversiones ya que en las tres ocasiones precedentes fue muy difícil recuperar la inercia productiva una vez superados los problemas. Pero luego añadió: “En realidad, en ninguno de los casos anteriores los precios bajaron tan rápido. Veremos cuánto dura esta situación; pero si no acaba pronto, podemos tener problemas serios”.

La economía de Canadá parece haber estado desconectada de la del resto de Occidente en los últimos años. Exceptuando 2009, ha sostenido un crecimiento medio anual en torno al 2% durante la última década, consiguió salir ilesa de la crisis mundial de 2008 y los precios de la vivienda siguen subiendo sin que ninguna burbuja haya explotado aún. Estos precedentes hacen incluso más llamativo ver cómo políticos, medios de comunicación y la sociedad en general se preguntan cuánto tiempo durará esta caída de precios y si sus efectos podrían alterar la bien trecha economía canadiense.

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