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Rompecabezas electoral 2015

Horacio Morel (Buenos Aires) | 198 comentarios valoración: 3  63 votos
Vota 1 2 3 4 5
Resultado 3  63 votos

Destino final: elecciones generales del 25 de octubre, con escala previa en las Primarias Abiertas, Simultáneas y Obligatorias (“PASO”) del 9 de agosto. El calendario comicial hace su primer llamado a embarque, ya a la vista el cierre de candidaturas y alianzas (10 de junio), y comienza la danza de nombres, candidaturas y acuerdos electorales.

Por primera vez desde la reforma que incluyó la celebración de primarias, las elecciones no se presentan como una interna peronista abierta. Es que según algunas de las últimas encuestas el actual Jefe de Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, lidera la intención de voto con el 27/28% según diferentes mediciones, superando a los peronistas Massa y Scioli (opositor a Cristina el primero, eternamente indefinido el segundo) quienes se asomarían a la disputa con algo más del 21% en cada caso, según la encuestadora Raúl Aragón & Asociados.

Las otras candidaturas se pulverizan a medida que transcurren los días, como ocurre con el espacio opositor UNEN, en el cual su principal candidato a presidente –el socialista Hermes Binner– ya desertó de la carrera presidencial. El oficialismo no exterioriza (ni lo hará) su apoyo al principal candidato del gobernante Frente para la Victoria, el gobernador bonaerense Daniel Scioli, quien pese a los permanentes desaires de la presidenta Cristina F. de Kirchner no se decide a declararse opositor, prefiriendo adoptar un discurso ambiguo en el que asegura su intención de continuar con lo bueno que se ha hecho en la década kirchnerista y completar lo que no se ha hecho o lo que se ha hecho mal, evitando una confrontación abierta con el gobierno. Éste prefiere fogonear la candidatura de aspirantes sin chances, como el ministro Randazzo, porque sabiéndose perdido para octubre prefiere que el gobierno quede en manos de Macri apostando a su fracaso (verosímil si le dejan un país y una economía minados) al ejemplo del chileno Piñera, para regresar con Cristina triunfante dentro de cuatro años luego de un lapso en manos de la “derecha”.

Pero un escenario electoral posible es que Macri se imponga en las primarias, e incluso en la primera vuelta de las generales, pero pierda en el ballotage con Scioli o con Massa, el peronista que obtenga más votos inicialmente. ¿Cuál sería la única fórmula segura de éxito? Una eventual –y hasta ahora resistida– alianza entre Macri y Massa, desistiendo este último de ser candidato a presidente para postularse a gobernador de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Una fórmula tal no tendría competencia alguna.

La histórica Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), sin peso especifico propio a nivel nacional pero localmente influyente en algunos distritos, decide este próximo fin de semana en su convención nacional si abandona el espacio de UNEN y acuerda con Macri, de modo que pueda tener algún espacio de poder en un futuro gabinete macrista.

Mientras más o menos en eso anda el panorama electoral en el mundo virtual de las encuestas, el país real sufre los males de siempre, pero agravados.

La inflación no se detiene, y los precios de la cesta de la compra aumentan incesantemente, al compás de la pérdida de valor de la moneda. El frente externo se muestra amenazante, ya que el esperado acuerdo con los “fondos buitre” que conservan en su poder títulos de la deuda pública que no ingresaron en el megacanje no se celebró, pareciendo el gobierno haber cambiado la estrategia ante los tribunales de Nueva York: si antes se trataba de pasar el 31 de diciembre de 2014 cuando vencía la cláusula “RUFO” (que obligaba compensar a todos los bonistas en la misma proporción que se haría con los “buitres”), ahora parece que la intención del gobierno es estirar todo lo posible los plazos procesales para dejarle la bomba a punto de estallar al próximo gobierno, de modo que tenga que pagar y un minuto después, ya desde la oposición, lanzarle la acusación de “vendepatria”. Ése sería el primer hito para desplegar su discurso “nacionalista” al estilo chavista con el que hostigaría durante cuatro años al “gobierno de la derecha”.

Y a medida que se acerca el alejamiento del kirchnerismo del poder, la prepotencia de sus funcionarios se vuelve cada día más violenta, como se ha podido apreciar con ocasión del hecho institucionalmente más grave de los últimos tiempos: la muerte dudosa del fiscal Alberto Nisman, días después de presentar su denuncia contra la mismísima presidenta de la nación, involucrándola en el encubrimiento del mayor atentado terrorista sufrido en la historia argentina (la voladura de la mutual judía AMIA en 1994), el día antes de comparecer ante la comisión de diputados del Congreso Nacional a exponer sus pruebas. A casi dos meses de su muerte, no se ha podido determinar si se trató de un suicidio, de un suicidio inducido o de un homicidio, y la denuncia presentada por Nisman fue rápida y sospechosamente desestimada por el juez federal Rafecas. Ahora la causa espera recorrer el paciente laberinto judicial de la apelación.

La sociedad civil se había movilizado rápidamente ante la muerte del fiscal, pero la decisión judicial comentada anteriormente y la falta de reflejo político de la oposición para canalizar el malestar social creado hicieron que de momento un cierto desánimo y sentimiento de impotencia se apodere de la gente. El manoseo de la causa judicial en la que se investiga la muerte de Nisman, el cual incluye la controversia respecto de las amistades íntimas del fiscal y sus preferencias sexuales, hacen que su tratamiento informativo se desplace de los programas políticos a los de chimentos.

Quedan pocos meses para que la clase política argentina dé un salto cualitativo, deje de mirar las encuestas y se decida a proponer un programa de gobierno que pretenda dar solución a los problemas que preocupan a los ciudadanos: la economía, la inseguridad urbana, la corrupción política y policial, la independencia judicial, la libertad de empresa y de educación, la calidad institucional. En eso queremos andar.

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