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>Entrevista a Manuel Alejandro Cardenete, catedrático de la Universidad Loyola de Andalucía

"La corrupción en Andalucía ha creado inseguridad para las inversiones"

Nico P. Gallo | 134 comentarios valoración: 3  29 votos
Vota 1 2 3 4 5
Resultado 3  29 votos

El caso de los ERE ya está en el Supremo. Ex presidentes y ex consejeros comparecen como imputados y posibles responsables de la adjudicación irregular durante 10 años de 850 millones de euros de ayudas de dinero público que se distribuyeron con criterios de clientelismo político. Manuel Alejandro Cardenete ha estudiado en profundidad la economía andaluza y las consecuencias de la corrupción en la Comunidad Autónoma con más paro.

¿La corrupción ha afectado a la economía andaluza?

Evidentemente, cualquier caso de corrupción, ya sea en la economía andaluza o en cualquier economía, tiene consecuencias no solo por el dinero desviado sino por el clima de inseguridad que genera. En el caso andaluz, tenemos muchos casos abiertos: cursos de formación, expedientes de regulación de empleo, agencia Idea y la forma en que se financiaban algunas empresas a la hora de apoyarlas en su primera fase… Todo eso en un marco en que fluía bastante dinero, sobre todo procedente del fondo europeo, y en ese clima de boom económico y con dinero en circulación se favorecían estos deslices, digamos que facilitaba el tomar ese dinero de forma irregular. Todavía estamos pendientes de que se cierren la mayoría de los juicios, todavía no tenemos condenas en firme, aunque algunos parece que están bastante avanzados. Lo cierto es que eso repercute en lo económico, pues en este momento todavía no sabemos a cuánto asciende el montante desviado, pero también tiene una segunda consecuencia, que es el clima de inseguridad a la hora de invertir por parte de las empresas, o incluso el sector público, en este caso Europa, qué dinero podrá dar para ese objetivo que era la convergencia europea y que puede quedar minado. Evidentemente, queda en entredicho nuestra solvencia, no solo económica sino ética y moral.

El sector industrial andaluz representa solo el 9% del PIB, ¿por qué?

Dos factores. Primero, nunca ha habido tradición industrial secular en Andalucía, igual que en otras regiones españolas, como País Vasco o Cataluña, ha habido una burguesía de corte industrial, por la propia fisonomía del terreno y los recursos naturales ha sido una economía que ya en el siglo XIX se basaba en una economía de latifundios. Eso marca una tendencia de la evolución económica. Si a eso se le suma la falta de cultura y tradición empresarial, se le une que en los últimos años, y sobre todo desde la entrada en la Unión  Europea, se ha recibido una gran cantidad de fondos europeos donde no se primaba el sector industrial, y en tercer lugar no hemos tenido una política industrial bien dirigida. De hecho, se dice–un consejero lo dijo tal cual– que la mejor política industrial era no tenerla. Y ahora tenemos estos problemas. Las regiones con un sector industrial más fuerte han soportado la crisis mucho mejor, porque el sector industrial, aunque tiene problemas coyunturales, funciona más a largo plazo, es mucho más estructurado. En Andalucía, en cuanto la economía se ha resentido, hemos visto que sin un sector –básicamente los servicios– la tasa de paro se ha triplicado. Es algo que parece que sí se está queriendo cambiar y la Junta parece estar dando un giro para impulsar una política industrial. Hay un deseo de poner encima de la mesa que el porcentaje del sector industrial en Andalucía llegue al umbral del 15%.

¿La política fiscal de la Junta ha sofocado o ha alentado la iniciativa privada?

Las Comunidades Autónomas en España tienen un régimen fiscal que no deja demasiado margen de maniobra. Tiene una serie de impuestos cedidos y solo controla parcialmente algunos. Lo poco o mucho que controla no lo ha usado para hacer precisamente una política expansiva, sino todo lo contrario, muy contractiva, buscando incrementar la recaudación para que el déficit no fuera demasiado elevado. Me estoy refiriendo por ejemplo al impuesto de sucesiones y donaciones, que incluso en España hay Comunidades Autónomas que ya no tienen, o al IRPF, que en el tramo autonómico estamos en los topes superiores de España, cuando la renta per cápita es de las más bajas, lo cual no tiene mucho sentido. No se da el clima más favorable para atraer a posibles inversores, empresarios o autónomos.

¿Por qué hay tanto diferencial en la tasa de paro y la renta per cápita en Andalucía?

Nuestra tasa de paro está en torno al 34%, la media española está en el 22-24%, y nuestra renta per cápita está en 16.000 euros cuando la media española, que también ha bajado por la crisis, está por encima de los 21.000, aunque estoy hablando de memoria. La diferencia se debe a lo que comentaba antes de la estructura económica andaluza, basada fundamentalmente en el sector primario y servicios. Cuando la coyuntura económica viene mal dada, como son sectores muy intensivos en mano de obra, han mandado mucha gente al desempleo. Si a esos dos problemas tradicionales se le suma que el sector que generó tanto crecimiento en su momento, el de la construcción, atrayendo a mucha gente a trabajar en Andalucía –no solo andaluces que dejaron los estudios para dedicarse a eso sino también gente de fuera de Andalucía, pues estamos hablando de un sector que fue muy intensivo en mano de obra–, cuando la economía ha venido mal dada ha expulsado a muchísima gente del mercado de trabajo. Eso unido a la destrucción de miles de empresas que no solo tenían vinculación directa con estos sectores sino todas las empresas derivadas, vinculadas indirectamente con ellos.

¿Qué debería hacer entonces el nuevo gobierno de la Junta para favorecer una prosperidad real?

Marcar una hoja de ruta clara y definitiva con un plan estratégico, donde el objetivo final sea cambiar el reparto proporcional que tenemos de nuestro PIB. No podemos tener un reparto donde la parte principal sea básicamente turismo y el sector industrial esté por debajo del 10%. E incluso un sector primario que permita una agricultura productiva y aproveche los recursos naturales que tenemos pero que esté vinculado a la industria agroalimentaria. No puede ser que hagamos aceite, lo vendamos a Italia, y ellos lo vendan a Estados Unidos. Y en el sector servicios, sigamos trabajando lo bueno que tenemos, el turismo, evitando la estacionalidad de ese turismo, pero que el sector servicios sea algo más que el turístico. Por ejemplo, servicios a empresas, donde también se está haciendo algo desde los parques tecnológicos. Hace falta todo un cambio de estructura que en este momento aún no se ha producido. De hecho, cuando las cosas empiezan a mejorar y la tasa de paro empieza a caer, si nos fijamos en los sectores que mejoran vuelven a ser los mismos: primario, construcción y servicios. Lo que significa que cuando la cosa vuelva a ir mal, volverá a pasar lo mismo, empezarán a destruir empleo al ritmo tan elevado al que lo hacen estos tres sectores.

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