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30 SEPTIEMBRE 2020

Renzi, ante su momento más difícil

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No exageramos si decimos que Matteo Renzi se ha convertido en este momento en el mayor riesgo político de la Unión Europea, por el hecho de encabezar la tercera economía de la eurozona y porque se lo va a jugar todo en un "referendum", y ya sabemos que el último "referendum" (para decidir la salida o no de la Unión Europea) se ha cobrado la cabeza del Primer Ministro británico, David Cameron, quien solo un año antes había ganado las elecciones generales en su país. En ese sentido, para ganar ese "referendum" Renzi no se puede presentar haciendo compartir las pérdidas de los bancos a millones de accionistas italianos, porque estos le podrían "pagar" con un "no" rotundo a su "referendum".

Lo cierto es que la cuenta atrás ha comenzado y la reunión de ministros de Economía de la zona euro de la semana del 11-15 de julio será donde los compañeros de asiento de Pier Carlo Padoan le exijan que zanje el problema de la banca italiana, que se resume en dos datos fundamentales: casi cuatro billones en activos por más de 337.000 millones de euros en préstamos morosos. Ante esta realidad, el Gobierno italiano lucha sin tregua por evitar lo que se conoce como un "rescate a la española", ya que este supondría importantes pérdidas a los inversores más desprotegidos, entre los que figuran millones de ciudadanos de a pie con títulos equivalentes a las célebres acciones "preferentes" que se vendieron en su momento en España.

Lo peor es que llueve sobre mojado, ya que en 2015 la crisis de cuatro pequeñas entidades (con menos del 1% de cuota de mercado total) ya supuso una pérdida de 800 millones de euros para los inversores, la mayoría pequeños, con deuda subordinada. La consecuencia fue que el Gobierno italiano se vio obligado a crear un "fondo de solidaridad" (dotado con 100 millones de euros), así como un mecanismo de arbitraje para aliviar las quejas de ahorradores que se sentían engañados por sus respectivas entidades financieras. Sin embargo, esto no quedaría más que en mera anécdota si pensamos en la posibilidad de un rescate a la banca de un país donde los hogares poseen bonos del sector por valor de 300.000 millones de euros (es decir, un tercio del total), incluidos unos 31.000 millones de euros de euros en deuda subordinada, según datos de la Comisión Europea.

¿Qué puede hacer Matteo Renzi ante una situación tan crítica? Según el Financial Times, el Primer Ministro italiano estaría dispuesto a saltarse las normas europeas y llevar a cabo un rescate con dinero público sin dar explicación a las autoridades comunitarias. Lo que podría tener efectos tan positivos como negativos. A favor de Renzi jugaría el hecho de que se trata de uno de los países que no tuvo que socorrer con fondos públicos al sector bancario durante la fase más aguda de la crisis financiera iniciada en 2008. En contra, mientras, estaría el hecho de que buscar una solución unilateral en estos momentos dejaría cuestionada la frágil unión bancaria al tiempo que podría provocar las iras del Gobierno alemán, que se resiste a seguir avanzando en la integración del sector por temor a potenciales pérdidas en países como Italia.

En todo caso, la crisis es de una extraordinaria importancia. Porque la mayor parte del problema se concentra en el crédito a las empresas, unas compañías que han sufrido el azote de la crisis y que en muchos casos han quebrado y no han podido devolver los préstamos bancarios. En ese sentido, el círculo vicioso de crisis y morosidad ha disparado los préstamos y ha colocado a algunas entidades financieras italianas ante una situación difícilmente sostenible. Y es que no hay que olvidar que el volumen de créditos a empresas, según la Comisión, ascendía ya en diciembre de 2015 a 159.000 millones de euros, esto es, cinco veces más que al comienzos de la crisis en 2008. La solución a todo esto, la semana que viene.

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Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes es Doctor en Historia Contemporánea por la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Especialista en Historia de la España actual, ha publicado varios libros sobre el tema de la Iglesia durante el franquismo y la Transición. Sus investigaciones le llevaron a realizar numerosas estancias de investigación en Italia, donde comenzó a interesarse por la realidad italiana. Su último libro es 'El laberinto italiano. Del fenómeno Berlusconi a la crisis actual, 1994-2014'
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