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Habrá Gobierno, la crisis (política) sigue

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En España habrá Gobierno. Después de ocho meses. Salvo que todo se tuerza mucho habrá Gobierno a finales de agosto o a principios de septiembre. Se cerrará así la crisis política más larga desde la recuperación de la democracia en 1975. El cambio de posición de Ciudadanos habrá sido decisivo para superar el bloqueo. Ciudadanos ha exigido al PP de Rajoy 6 condiciones, encaminadas fundamentalmente a la lucha contra la corrupción, para darle el sí de sus 32 diputados en la investidura. Las condiciones son perfectamente asumibles por el partido ganador en las elecciones que hubo que repetir. El líder de los populares se ha dado unos días para que su cesión no parezca demasiado rápida. Podrá así presentarse en el Congreso con el respaldo de 169 diputados que serán 170 (con el apoyo de la diputada canaria). Está a seis diputados de una mayoría suficiente y sería incomprensible que los socialistas no facilitaran la formación de Gobierno cuando hay una agenda tan urgente que afrontar. Por fin habrá solución aritmética. La crisis más urgente se resuelve, pero permanecen los problemas de fondo que lastran la vida democrática: la ideologización de la política que impide el acercamiento al otro y un sistema de partidos distanciado de la vida social. Sin afrontarlos este largo período se habrá cerrado en falso.

El nuevo Gobierno no debería olvidarse de que la crisis (término que no tiene por qué ser negativo) política no comienza tras las elecciones de 2015. Aflora con las concentraciones del movimiento del 15 M de 2011. Los indignados que se concentran en la Puerta del Sol son la punta del iceberg de un amplio rechazo al sistema de partidos creado tras la muerte de Franco. Incluso entre los votantes más conservadores ese rechazo avanza a lo largo de la legislatura del PP. Entre 2011 y 2015 los populares pierden más de 3,5 millones votos por los sacrificios exigidos. Pero también por la partitocracia y la corrupción, la excesiva tecnocracia y la falta de alma cultural de la política del centro-derecha. En 2015 el bipartidismo no desaparece pero los votantes buscan alternativas. Los dos nuevos, aunque no tan fuertes como en un principio se pensaba, se han quedado en el Congreso y condicionan la formación de mayorías. La falta de flexibilidad de los viejos partidos ha hecho el resto.

Hay algo en el sistema institucional de la democracia española que ha favorecido esta situación. La democracia española pertenece a lo que Huntington llama la tercera ola democratizadora. La primera se produce en el XIX y es directamente heredera de las revoluciones francesa y estadounidense. La segunda es la que llega tras la II Guerra Mundial y la tercera es la que protagonizan Portugal, España y Grecia. Del Mediterráneo salta a América Latina y Asia Oriental. La tercera ola democrática, dispuesta a corregir los errores de las anteriores, y el mal recuerdo de la II República, busca la estabilidad institucional. El sistema electoral corrige la proporcionalidad y tiende a ser mayoritario, sobre todo en las circunscripciones con poca población. Esas circunscripciones tienen mucho peso. Se favorece la creación de un sistema de partidos fuertes, que acaban encerrados en sí mismos. Los diputados no necesitan escuchar las demandas sociales, no dependen de forma directa de sus votantes. Las propuestas y el posicionamiento ideológico no vienen de abajo a arriba. La base cuenta poco. Son los “gurús” demoscópicos los que “diseñan” el “producto político” que más venta puede tener. Se forma así un círculo vicioso, la sociedad civil débil, heredada de la dictadura, no tiene interlocutores políticos y los políticos no tienen interés en la conversación social.

De una situación así no se puede salir con invocaciones a la buena voluntad. Urge una reforma del sistema electoral que “invite” a los políticos a estar en la calle. De las seis peticiones de Ciudadanos al PP la más interesante a largo plazo es la que reclama superar el sistema de listas cerradas y desbloqueadas. La Constitución española no permite listas abiertas. Pero si permite un sistema electoral como el alemán. El modelo germánico es complejo a la hora de distribuir los escaños pero sencillo para el elector. El votante dispone de dos votos, uno para una lista cerrada y otro para elegir directamente a un diputado (escaño uninominal) en cada circunscripción. Al final la composición del Bundestag depende a partes iguales de los votos directos y de los votos de la lista cerrada. Eso le quita poder a los partidos, obliga a una parte importante de los diputados a estar tan pendientes de la gente. Sin volver a conectar la política con la vida social, más tarde o más temprano, el populismo que ahora está agazapado, avanzará.

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