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1 ABRIL 2020

La Unión Europea exige un ajuste presupuestario a Italia

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Todo comenzó con una carta enviada por la Comisión Europea al Ministro de Economía y Finanzas, Pier Carlo Padoan. En ella la Unión Europea le pedía "medidas presupuestarias adicionales" que conllevaran una reducción del déficit estructural de 0.2 puntos del PIB. Lo que se traducía en tener que recortar alrededor de 3.400 millones de euros. ¿Por qué? Muy sencillo: los presupuestos que hizo aprobar Matteo Renzi (antes del "referendum" en la Cámara de Diputados, y después de este en el Senado) disparaban el déficit para 2017 a la cifra de 2.4%, cuando en principio el Gobierno italiano debía reducirlo al 1.8%. Aunque parece evidente que la Comisión está siendo asequible en sus peticiones porque solicita un ajuste solo del 0.2% cuando podría exigirlo del 0.6, la cuestión resulta muy delicada para el Gobierno italiano, inmerso en pleno saneamiento del sector bancario que obligó, antes de finalizar diciembre, a aumentar en 20.000 millones la deuda pública para poder sanear los bancos más urgidos de recapitalización (destacando por encima del resto, como es bien sabido, el Monte dei Paschi di Siena).

Si el Gobierno quiere recortar 3.400 millones tal y como le piden las autoridades europeas, entonces solo tiene dos posibilidades: aumentar los impuestos o anular las medidas expansivas aprobadas por el Gobierno Renzi. Y es que, según ha calculado la agencia Bloomberg, durante el mandato de Renzi la deuda pública italiana había subido un total de 7.6 puntos, algo que solo encuentra parangón en el aumento en 7 puntos del último Gobierno de Berlusconi (2008-2011). A ello hay que añadir el aumento de la deuda pública que también se vivió con Mario Monti (un 5.5%), aunque en su caso no fue consecuencia de un aumento del gasto público sino de haber tenido la prima de riesgo durante meses por encima de los 350 puntos básicos. En ese sentido, resulta necesario retroceder al segundo Gobierno Prodi (2006-2008) para ver un descenso de la deuda del 2.1%, y eso supone que el los diferentes gobiernos no han hecho más que aumentar la deuda nacional durante los últimos ocho años y medio.

La cruda realidad es que, una vez más, el Gobierno italiano se enfrenta a un procedimiento sancionador: tanto el Vicepresidente de la Comisión, Valdis Dombrovskis, como el Comisario de Asuntos Económicos, Pierre Moscovici, ya han dejado claro que no respetar este último requerimiento significaría quedarse sin las anteriores compensaciones otorgadas por la Comisión (unos 19.000 millones que Roma había obtenido para el bienio 2015-2016 y que gastó el Gobierno Renzi).

Y no sucede precisamente en el mejor momento: aunque Italia ha consolidado la salida de la recesión, su crecimiento sigue siendo débil: un 0.9% en 2016 que podría ser del 0.7% en 2017 y del 0.8% en 2018. Lo que supone una dificultad más para el Partido Democrático (PD), sea o no con Renzi de cabeza de cartel, de cara a volver a ganar las elecciones generales tras el ajustadísimo triunfo de 2013. 

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sobre este blog
El observador español
Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes es Doctor en Historia Contemporánea por la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Especialista en Historia de la España actual, ha publicado varios libros sobre el tema de la Iglesia durante el franquismo y la Transición. Sus investigaciones le llevaron a realizar numerosas estancias de investigación en Italia, donde comenzó a interesarse por la realidad italiana. Su último libro es 'El laberinto italiano. Del fenómeno Berlusconi a la crisis actual, 1994-2014'
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