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1 ABRIL 2020

La gravedad de la situación bancaria italiana, al descubierto

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En el foco se sitúa la figura del Presidente del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), que no es otro que el mismo que presidió el Banco de Italia en los años 2008-11: Mario Draghi. Ello supone que el encargado de buscar una solución a este problema era el mismo que ejerció bien su papel de regulador durante aquellos años, y de ahí las constantes críticas que recibe de países como Alemania. En todo caso, Draghi ya se ha puesto manos a la obra, aprovechando la interinidad del Gobierno Gentiloni (que acaba de cumplir dos meses de vida), y está intentando que el saneamiento bancario italiano no se dilate más en el tiempo. El problema es que las cosas se han puesto cada vez más difíciles, toda vez que desde la entrada en vigor de la Unión Bancaria (noviembre de 2016), los estados no pueden ayudar a sus bancos antes si no lo han hechos sus accionistas o bonistas, entre los que se encuentran los pequeños clientes.

La verdadera prueba de fuego va a estar en lo que suceda con el primer banco del país, UniCredit, que está acometiendo una fortísima reestructuración que conllevará, entre otras cosas, la reducción de 14.000 puestos de trabajo entre 2017 y 2019, al tiempo que ha lanzado una ampliación de capital por el valor de 13.000 millones de euros y la venta de 17.000 millones de créditos morosos. Todo ello tras conocerse que a lo largo del año 2016 perdió 11.790 millones de euros una vez reconoció los activos morosos reales que tenía. En ese sentido, si este banco consigue el capital que está buscando de los inversores, dará tranquilidad al conjunto del sector. Pero, si no consigue esta ampliación, entonces, según el FMI, puede acabar produciéndose un "contagio regional y global significativo dado el peso sistémico de Italia". No olvidemos, en relación con ello, que los 360.000 millones de euros concedidos en créditos morosos suponen nada más y nada menos que el 22% del PIB nacional italiano. La ventaja con la que cuenta el Gobierno Gentiloni es que en este momento el BCE poco le puede apretar porque bastante tiene con el Brexit, la llegada de Donald Trump a la Casa Blanca y el auge de los popuiismos: en otras palabras, la Unión Europea no puede permitirse en este momento una crisis bancaria con los problemas que ya tiene ante sí, lo que explica que esté actuando con mucha mano izquierda en todo este asunto.

Entrando en el terreno de lo concreto, los datos hablan de la magnitud del desastre financiero transalpino. Si tuviéramos que medirlo por la rentabilidad sobre recursos propios (en concreto, el porcentaje medio durante los años 2013-2015), la peor cifra la presenta el banco recién nacionalizado (Monte dei Paschi di Siena), con un -36, seguido de Banca Popolare de Vicenza, con un -25%; Veneto Banca, con un -23%; Gruppo Banca Carige, con un -20% (recordemos que esta entidad ya recibió ayudas del Gobierno Renzi); Banco Popolare, con un -9; y Banca Popolare Dibari, con un -8. Frente a ellos, las entidades que presentan mejores cifras son el Grupo Cassa di Risparmio di Asti, con un +12; Gruppo Bancario Increa y Mediobanca, ambos con un +6; y Banca Popolare di Sondrio, con un +5. En medio de todos ellos está el segundo banco italiano, Intesa San Paolo, que presenta un +2 y por ello es con diferencia el banco que, por volumen de activos, adquiere mayor importancia y fiabilidad en Italia.

En lo que se refiere a la ratio de morosidad en el año 2015, y hablando también de porcentajes, de nuevo la peor cifra es para el MPS, con un 22%, seguido de la Banca Popolare de Vicenza, con un 21%; de Veneto Banca, con un 20%; y, finalmente, tres bancos (Banco Popolare, Gruppo Banca Carige y Credito Valtellinese), con un 18%. Lo más preocupante es que, entre los 20 principales bancos italianos, doce de ellos sobrepasan el 10% de morosidad, y cinco más el 5%. En el caso de Intesa San Paolo, su ratio de morosidad es importante, situándose en el 9%.

Con este panorama, lo más preocupante es que pueda haber elecciones pronto y que además Italia vuelva a la situación de 2013, en la que fue necesaria la intervención del Presidente de la República, Giorgio Napolitano, para forjar una alianza entre el PD y Forza Italia con el fin de que Italia tuviera una mayoría de gobierno. En relación con ello, dentro de quince días comienza el debate sobre la nueva ley electoral, y la pregunta es qué hara hasta la llegada de las elecciones un gobierno, el de Gentiloni, que puede acabar sepultando las posibilidades electorales de Matteo Renzi si no actúa con la habilidad necesaria.

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67Comentarios
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sobre este blog
El observador español
Pablo Martín de Santa Olalla Saludes es Doctor en Historia Contemporánea por la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. Especialista en Historia de la España actual, ha publicado varios libros sobre el tema de la Iglesia durante el franquismo y la Transición. Sus investigaciones le llevaron a realizar numerosas estancias de investigación en Italia, donde comenzó a interesarse por la realidad italiana. Su último libro es 'El laberinto italiano. Del fenómeno Berlusconi a la crisis actual, 1994-2014'
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